A sanity check for earthquake recurrence models used in PSHA of slowly deforming regions: the case of SW Iberia

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), despite its deep criticism, is still the most common tool used to decide on acceptable risk and corresponding mitigation measures. We propose two consistency tests address variability of earthquake generation models found in PSHA studies: (i) one rule-of-thumb test where moment release from model converted an average slip a typical fault compared with known plate kinematics or GNSS deformation field (ii) using neotectonic computed into synthetic catalogue. apply these W SW Iberia slowly deforming region, source areas are investigated: (1) Lower Tagus Valley, largest zones Portugal; (2) offshore area, considered be for 1 November 1755 event (M ∼ 8.7). Results show that some should suspicious, given their high/low when expected values observations modelling. This analysis allowed downgrade weight poorly compliant analysis, thus more realistic assessment, can integrated other studies similar settings.